Zogby Analytics -- Post election poll results
Enraged, deranged, vicious "Not My President" Trump haters who feel cheated that Hillary Clinton lost the election and blame it on a combination of Russian interference using hacked DNC emails, and Jim Comey's renewed 11th hour probe into Hillary's emails will hate this excellent underreported post-election poll that proves them flat out wrong. Professional pollster John Zogby (a radically left, pro-Clinton, Democrat Arab American) took a scientific poll on November 16th (eight days after the election) to determine when voters made their decision for whom to vote for. What Zogby found was this:
When did you make your decision for whom to vote for President?
A year ago 26%
More than a month ago 39
During the presidential debates 18
In the last week before voting 8
In the 24 hours before voting 4
In the voting booth 3
Not sure 3
26% (29 million voters) made up their minds one year before the election; 39% (52 million) made up their minds prior to October 7th, the day the massive Russian-DNC-WikiLeaks email dump began; 18% (24 million) made their decision based on the three Trump-Clinton debates (September 26th, October 10th, and October 20th). In sum, according to Zogby 83% of voters (112 million out of 135 million) were completely uninfluenced by the WikiLeaks emails.
But what of the remaining 17% or 23 million voters who were still undecided after the last presidential debate, and made up their minds in the final days and hours of the campaign? Most analysts agree that this was the group that decided the election for change agent Donald Trump over establishment candidate Hillary Clinton; that late in the day they broke for Trump in the battle ground, swing states that mattered (Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan), and where Hillary was out polling him right up to the end. But why did these swing state voters break for Trump?
THE RUSSIAN DNC/PODESTA HACK
Indeed, did the steady drip drip drip of the Wiki-emails throughout October disillusion hundreds and thousands of Hillary leaning voters in the three swing states causing them to vote for anyone but her, or not vote at all depriving her of crucial votes to the benefit of Trump?
The answer is an emphatic NO!. For many reasons it's practically impossible that WikiLeaks mattered with late undecided voters; and this is born out by Zogby who makes mention of a "Comey effect" in his polling data (which I'll get to later), but not of a "Wiki effect." Why the one and not the other when both were and still are hotly debated controversial subjects? The answer is simple: unlike the "Comey effect" Zogby, when questioning voters, couldn't find a "Wiki effect." Either Zogby found that the impact of the stolen Hillary related emails was too slight to have any post-election interest; or it was completely nonexistent; and this is understandable given the nature of the emails.
Indeed, while the DNC/Podesta emails did provide the basis for a lot of negative stories about Hillary (and hilarious right-wing mockery and propaganda) they were no more harmful to her campaign than annoying little pin pricks; they weren't politically damaging like the criminal probe into her server and emails that she lied about to the public and unsuccessfully tried to the cover up. In comparison the emails were as nothing to the electorate who were accustomed to hearing much worse about Hillary.
TRUMP'S SEXUAL ASSAULT ALLEGATIONS VS. HILLARY RELATED EMBARRASSING EMAILS
Look at it this way: if Donald Trump's infamous, lewd Hollywood Access groper tape, (which surfaced an hour before Jullian Assange published the DNC/Podesta emails), and subsequent multiple sexual assault allegations, failed to politically hurt or stop him (though a majority of voters believed they were true, see) what fatal political damage could Hillary have suffered from the Wiki stuff?
Indeed, which is worse and more offensive for turning off actual or potential voters? Trump's groper/assault scandal where women are demeaned as sexual objects and playthings? Or emails showing John Podesta bad mouthing Hillary and questioning her judgment? Or Hillary saying she wanted "a hemispheric borderless common market," "single payer healthcare," and that as President she'd implement gun control by executive order"? In other words, if "gropergate" scarcely hurt Trump with late voters then what significant electoral harm could the Wiki-emails caused Hillary?
PUTIN THE KINGMAKER?
So where does that leave Vladimir Putin? True, he (and his Kremlin hackers) tried to interfere with the election preferring Trump to Hillary. True he hoped that the Wiki-emails would help Trump's cause and even perhaps, serving as a distraction, counter the negative effects of the Hollywood Access tape*. But was Putin Trump's kingmaker? Absolutely not! And because Putin and the Wiki-emails had zero to do with Trump's victory Zogby couldn't find evidence of a "Wiki Effect" among the voters he questioned and omits it from his survey.
*It's no mere coincidence that on October 7th, when Julian Assange published the DNC/Podesta emails it was one hour after the Access Hollywood tape surfaced (see). It is also interesting to note that October 7th was Vladimir Putin's 64rd birthday (see).
THE COMEY EFFECT
Now while Zogby couldn't find a "Wiki effect" negatively impacting voters about Hillary (which he certainly looked for when questioning them) he did find a fairly substantial "Comey Effect" in 38% or 51 million voters. But as I will attempt to prove using Zogby's polling data the Comey Effect may have somewhat changed the electoral vote count, but not the outcome of the election.
Zogby asked voters the following:
"Did the re-opening of the investigation into Hillary Clinton's email server [on Oct. 28] have a negative impact, positive impact or no impact on your feelings toward Hillary Clinton as a candidate for President? "
And the result was:
Negative impact 30%
Positive impact 8
No impact 58
Not sure 4
Now according to Zogby 30% or 40.5 million voters had their feelings negatively impacted by Comey's 11th hour Hillary probe, which dominated the news cycle for nine days. And while 83% of these or 33.6 million already made up their minds who to vote for the question is this: did the remaining 17% or 6.9 million undecided voters decide the election for Trump based on the Comey effect? At first glance it would seem so. For if we evenly divide these 6.9 million undecideds between each of the 50 states it comes to 138, 000 voters per state. Now with Trump's close victories in each of the three swing states that won him the White House way under 138,000 votes (Pennsylvania 44,000, Wisconsin 23,000 and Michigan 10,000) it would appear that James Comey was Trump's kingmaker -- as Hillary Clinton believes.
TOP VOTER ISSUES
But Hillary is greatly, greatly mistaken. For when we factor in Zogby's data on the top issues that concerned voters (and especially the undecideds) we learn that Trump could have likely lost only one of the three key states due to the Comey Effect. In other words, as you will see, if Comey hadn't renewed the investigation into Hillary Trump would have won the electoral vote anyway.
According to Zogby top issues for voters were as follows:
The Environment 5
The budget deficit 6
Social security 6
Other (specify) 8
You will notice that the top issue "Economy/Jobs" at 32% is followed by an issue relevant to the Comey Effect, "Trust/Truthfulness," and this intensely concerned 11% of the voters. Now 11% of the 6.9 million voters who were negatively impacted by the Comey Effect and were likely swayed by the trust issue to vote for Trump (or one of the third-party candidates) over Hillary was 759,000 votes.
But the question again is this: did the 11% influenced by Comey win the presidency (as Hillary and others believe) for Donald Trump? The answer is an emphatic NO! Whichever way I crunched the numbers (there's only two ways of doing this) it didn't add up to a win for Hillary.
For example, using the simple method of equally dividing the 759,000 Comey influenced/trust votes between each of the 50 states it gives us 15,180 votes per state. And 15,180 is only more (by 5180) than the margin of Trump's victory in one of the three key swing states: Michigan (10,000 votes). Giving Michigan with its 16 electoral votes to Hillary does nothing to change the outcome of the election.
According to The Daily Telegraph Corey Lewandowski said that Comey's late investigation into Hillary related emails gave the Trump campaign "a little spring in their step." And so it did. But just a little; not enough to make a decisive difference.
However, when I used a more sophisticated method where I worked out the math on a state by state basis the result, beginning with Pennsylvania remained unchanged:
2,970,733 - Trump votes
505,024 - 17% undecided
151,507 - 30% Comey effect
16,665 -11% trust top issue
44,000 - Trump's margin of victory
1,405,284 - Trump votes
238,898 - 17% undecided
71,669 - 30% Comey effect
7883 - 11% trust top issue
23,000 - T's margin of victory
2,279,543 - Trump votes
387,522 -17% undecided
116,256 - 30% Comey effect
14,867 - 11% trust top issue
10,000 - Trump's margin of victory
As you can see when taking the percentage of undecided voters in each of the three key swing states where Trump narrowly won, and then further reducing that number to Comey Effect voters, then reducing that to trust issue voters, again only in Michigan does it appear that the Comey Effect could have been the decisive factor helping Trump. In Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, as with the other 27 states Trump won, the overriding issue that put him over the top was the economy and jobs. In only one state Michigan does it appear it was the trust issue influenced by the short-lived Comey probe.
In sum, if there were no stolen DNC WikiLeaks emails, nor the 11th hour FBI Clinton email probe, Donald Trump would be exactly where he is today: 45th President of the United States -- but with less controversy about his historic, astonishing PROVIDENTIAL victory.
2016 WHITE MIDDLE CLASS BACKLASH BASED ON ECONOMIC DECLINE NOT REACTIONARY RACIST POLITICS
It's True: WikiLeaks dumped Podesta emails hour after Trump video surfaced | PolitiFact