IF HILLARY HADN’T BEEN OBAMA’S SEC OF STATE SHE’D BE PRESIDENT TODAY

 

                                           
 

Zogby Analytics -- Post election poll results

John Zogby

Enraged, deranged, vicious "Not My President" Trump haters who feel cheated that Hillary Clinton lost the election and blame it on a combination of Russian interference using hacked DNC emails, and Jim Comey's renewed 11th hour  probe into Hillary's emails will hate this excellent underreported post-election poll that proves them flat out wrong. Professional pollster John Zogby (a radically left, pro-Clinton, Democrat Arab American) took a scientific poll on November 16th (eight days after the election) to determine when voters made their decision for whom to vote for. What Zogby found was this:

When did you make your decision for whom to vote for President?

A year ago 26%
More than a month ago 39
During the presidential debates 18
In the last week before voting 8 
In the 24 hours before voting 4
In the voting booth 3
Not sure 3

26% (29 million voters) made up their minds one year before the election; 39% (52 million) made up their minds prior to October 7th, the day the massive Russian-DNC-WikiLeaks email dump began; 18% (24 million) made their decision based on the three Trump-Clinton debates (September 26th, October 10th, and October 20th). In sum, according to Zogby 83% of voters (112 million out of 135 million) were completely uninfluenced by the WikiLeaks emails.

 
 

 

But what of the remaining 17% or 23 million voters who were still undecided after the last presidential debate, and made up their minds in the final days and hours of the campaign? Most analysts agree that this was the group that decided the election for change agent Donald Trump over establishment candidate Hillary Clinton; that late in the day they broke for Trump in the battle ground, swing states that mattered (Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan), and where Hillary was out polling him right up to the end. But why did these swing state voters break for Trump? 

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THE RUSSIAN DNC/PODESTA HACK

 Indeed, did the steady drip drip drip of the Wiki-emails throughout October disillusion hundreds and thousands of Hillary leaning voters in the three swing states causing them to vote for anyone but her, or not vote at all depriving her of crucial votes to the benefit of Trump?

The answer is an emphatic NO!. For many reasons it's practically impossible that WikiLeaks mattered with late undecided voters; and this is born out by Zogby who makes mention of a "Comey effect" in his polling data (which I'll get to later), but not of a "Wiki effect." Why the one and not the other when both were and still are hotly debated controversial subjects? The answer is simple: unlike the "Comey effect" Zogby, when questioning voters, couldn't find a "Wiki effect." Either Zogby found that the impact of the stolen Hillary related emails was too slight to have any post-election interest; or it was completely nonexistent; and this is understandable given the nature of the emails.

Indeed, while the DNC/Podesta emails did provide the basis for a lot of negative stories about Hillary (and hilarious right-wing mockery and propaganda) they were no more harmful to her campaign than annoying little pin pricks; they weren't politically damaging like the criminal probe into her server and emails that she lied about to the public and unsuccessfully tried to the cover up. In comparison the emails were as nothing to the electorate who were accustomed to hearing much worse about Hillary.

TRUMP'S SEXUAL ASSAULT ALLEGATIONS VS. HILLARY RELATED EMBARRASSING EMAILS

 

 

Look at it this way: if Donald Trump's infamous, lewd Hollywood Access groper tape, (which surfaced an hour before Julian Assange published the DNC/Podesta emails), and subsequent multiple sexual assault allegations, failed to politically hurt or stop him (though a majority of voters believed they were true, see) what fatal political damage could Hillary have suffered from the Wiki stuff?

Indeed, which is worse and more offensive for turning off actual or potential voters? Trump's groper/assault scandal where women are demeaned as sexual objects and playthings? Or emails showing John Podesta bad mouthing Hillary and questioning her judgment? Or Hillary saying she wanted "a hemispheric borderless common market," "single payer healthcare," and that as President she'd implement gun control by executive order"? In other words, if "gropergate" scarcely hurt Trump with late voters then what significant electoral harm could the Wiki-emails caused Hillary?

 

PUTIN THE KINGMAKER?

 

 

So where does that leave Vladimir Putin? True, he (and his Kremlin hackers) tried to interfere with the election  preferring Trump to Hillary. True he hoped that the Wiki-emails would help Trump's cause and even perhaps, serving as a distraction, counter the negative effects of the Hollywood Access tape*. But was Putin Trump's kingmaker? Absolutely not! And because Putin and the Wiki-emails had zero to do with Trump's victory Zogby couldn't find evidence of a "Wiki Effect" among the voters he questioned and omits it from his survey.

*It's no mere coincidence that on October 7th, when Julian Assange published the DNC/Podesta emails it was one hour after the Access Hollywood tape surfaced (see). It is also interesting to note that October 7th was Vladimir Putin's 64rd birthday (see).

 THE COMEY EFFECT

 
Now while Zogby couldn't find a "Wiki effect" negatively impacting voters about Hillary (which he certainly looked for when questioning them) he did find a fairly substantial "Comey Effect" in 38% or 51 million voters. But as I will attempt to prove using Zogby's polling data the Comey Effect may have somewhat changed the electoral vote count, but not the outcome of the election.
Zogby asked voters the following:
 

"Did the re-opening of the investigation into Hillary Clinton's email server  [on Oct. 28] have a negative impact, positive impact or no impact on your feelings toward Hillary Clinton as a candidate for President? "

And the result was:

Negative impact 30%
Positive impact 8
No impact 58
Not sure 4  

Now according to Zogby 30% or 40.5 million voters had their feelings negatively impacted by Comey's 11th hour Hillary probe, which dominated the news cycle for nine days. And while 83% of these or 33.6 million already made up their minds who to vote for the question is this: did the remaining 17% or 6.9 million undecided voters decide the election for Trump based on the Comey effect? At first glance it would seem so. For if we evenly divide these 6.9 million undecideds between each of the 50 states it comes to 138, 000 voters per state. Now with Trump's close victories in each of the three swing states that won him the White House way under 138,000 votes (Pennsylvania 44,000,  Wisconsin 23,000 and Michigan 10,000) it would appear that James Comey was Trump's kingmaker -- as Hillary Clinton believes.

TOP VOTER ISSUES

But Hillary is greatly, greatly mistaken. For when we factor in Zogby's data on the top issues that concerned voters (and especially the undecideds) we learn that Trump could have likely lost only one of the three key states due to the Comey Effect. In other words, as you will see, if Comey hadn't renewed the investigation into Hillary Trump would have won the electoral vote anyway.

According to Zogby top issues for voters were as follows:

Economy/jobs 32%
Taxes 5
Syria 1
Immigration 7
Trust/Truthfulness 11
Terrorism 8
The Environment 5 
Energy 1
The budget deficit 6
Social security 6
Medicare/Medicaid 4
Obamacare 8
Other (specify) 8 

You will notice that the top issue "Economy/Jobs" at 32% is followed by an issue relevant to the Comey Effect, "Trust/Truthfulness," and this intensely concerned 11% of the voters. Now 11% of the 6.9 million voters who were negatively impacted by the Comey Effect and were likely swayed by the trust issue to vote for Trump (or one of the third-party candidates) over Hillary was 759,000 votes.

But the question again is this: did the 11% influenced by Comey win the presidency (as Hillary and others believe) for Donald Trump? The answer is an emphatic NO! Whichever way I crunched the numbers (there's only two ways of doing this) it didn't add up to a win for Hillary.

For example, using the simple method of equally dividing the 759,000 Comey influenced/trust votes between each of the 50 states it gives us 15,180 votes per state. And 15,180 is only more (by 5180) than the margin of Trump's victory in  one of the three key swing states: Michigan (10,000 votes). Giving Michigan with its 16 electoral votes to Hillary does nothing to change the outcome of the election.

According to The Daily Telegraph Corey Lewandowski said that Comey's late investigation into Hillary related emails gave the Trump campaign "a little spring in their step." And so it did. But just a little; not enough to make a decisive difference.
 

However, when I used a more sophisticated method where I worked out the math on a state by state basis the result, beginning with Pennsylvania remained unchanged:

PENNSYLVANIA  

                             

2,970,733 - Trump votes

505,024 - 17% undecided

151,507 - 30% Comey effect

16,665 -11% trust top issue

44,000 - Trump's margin of victory

WISCONSIN                                  

1,405,284 - Trump votes 

238,898 - 17% undecided

71,669 - 30% Comey effect

7883 - 11% trust top issue

23,000 - T's margin of victory

MICHIGAN

                                   

2,279,543 - Trump votes

387,522 -17% undecided

116,256 - 30% Comey effect

14,867 - 11% trust top issue

10,000 - Trump's margin of victory

  As you can see when taking the percentage of undecided voters in each of the three key swing states where Trump narrowly won, and then further reducing that number to Comey Effect voters, then reducing that to trust issue voters, again only in Michigan does it appear that the Comey Effect could have been the decisive factor helping Trump. In Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, as with the other 27 states Trump won, the overriding issue that put him over the top was the economy and jobs. In only one state Michigan does it appear it was the trust issue influenced by the short-lived Comey probe.  

In sum, if there were no stolen DNC WikiLeaks emails, nor the 11th hour FBI Clinton email probe, Donald Trump would be exactly where he is today: 45th President of the United States -- but with less controversy about his historic, astonishing PROVIDENTIAL victory.

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35 thoughts on “IF HILLARY HADN’T BEEN OBAMA’S SEC OF STATE SHE’D BE PRESIDENT TODAY

  1. She’s not someone who deserves any sort of sympathy, but if she were, you’d almost have to feel sorry for her. She’s an old lady who failed miserably at something (twice) and she just can’t let it go and move on with her life. She’s so drunk with ambition and crazed for power that she refuses to accept reality and will likely spend her remaining days on earth plotting and scheming to somehow win the presidency. She’s like the Captain Ahab of politics

    1. “She’s not someone who deserves any sort of sympathy”

      Well said. Any normal person with compromised health would quietly retire and spend their remaining time living decently. She is such a vile creature. And those who support her are like cult members.

      1. I live and breathe Ayn Rand and you are right!

        “Hillary has become Ma Chalmers”

        [Wikipedia] “Emma Chalmers, Kip Chalmers’ mother, gains some influence after his death. Known as “Kip’s Ma,” she starts a soybean-growing project in Louisiana and commandeers thousands of railcars to move the harvest. As a result, the year’s wheat crop from Minnesota never reaches the rest of the country, but instead rots in storage; also, the soybean crop is lost, having been reaped too early.”

        Excellent analogy! Hillary will suck the life’s blood right out of the DNC, and pull voters away there by leaving other Democrat hopefuls rotting “in storage”…

        However, there also the poor health of both Willie Jeff and Rodham-Clinton to keep in consideration. It is very difficult to mitigate poor health.

  2. Hillary is

    “LUMP”

    Lump sat alone in a boggy marsh,
    Totally emotionless except for her heart
    Mud flowed up into lump’s pajamas
    She totally confused all the passing pihranas
    She’s lump, she’s lump
    She’s in my head
    She’s lump, she’s lump, she’s lump
    She might be dead
    Lump lingered last in line for brains
    And the one she got was sorta rotten and insane
    Small things so sad that birds could land
    Is lump fast asleep or rockin’ out with the band?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_sj_U6vObUA

  3. I hope she continues to suck all the air out of her party
    The more we hear of Hillary, the less we hear of any other potential Democrat nominee.

    1. “I hope she continues to suck all the air out of the room.

      The more we hear of Hillary, the less we hear of any other potential Democrat nominee. “

      I am still working on Harry Reid corruption. Can’t go into details, but it recently led to Podesta and Hillary and Bill. We can only hope they drag Hillary’s carcass out to run, the skeletons are unburying themselves like a church graveyard next to a riverbank.

    2. Goodwin says in the Post article, “Her explanation for why she lost shows that the new Hillary is the same as the old Hillary….”

      Explanations from Hillary and from her supporters:

      The lack of energy among supporters and Hillary being the inevitable candidate again elected Trump.

      People hating Hillary because she is so professional, so polished, such a wonderful lawyer, so brilliant, so good, so righteous, and so much better than us elected Trump.

      Robby Mook selecting the wrong travel stops for Hillary and spending heavily in the wrong states elected Trump.

      Hillary’s campaign team failing to hone her message and get voters to the polls elected Trump.

      And there are so many other reasons too numerous to write

      1. Here are some of those other reasons:

        Bill Clinton’s appearance of an inappropriate meeting with Attorney General Loretta Lynch elected Trump.

        Blatant sexism elected Trump.

        The ugly stew of racism elected Trump

      2. I’ve got a few myself:

        Hillary’s lack of likability and lack of trustworthiness elected Trump.

        Self-hating women elected Trump.

        Evangelical, Catholic, anti-marriage equality, and anti-choice social conservatives elected Trump.

        Misogyny elected Trump.

        1. I’ve got a few contributions to make:

          Democrat policies that favor the rich elected Trump.

          Failure to talk to working-class white voters elected Trump.

          FBI investigation elected Trump.

          Email scandal elected Trump.

          Men elected Trump.

          White women elected Trump.

          Racists elected Trump.

          Sexists elected Trump.

      3. I too have reasons to add

        Hatred of Hillary Clinton at the FBI (how could anyone hate a lovable woman like Hillary?) elected Trump.

        The Russians elected Trump.

        Wikileaks elected Trump.

        FBI Director Comey elected Trump.

        Sinister outside forces elected Trump.

        Whitelash elected Trump.

    1. If she is alive she’ll run.

      That’s why she installed one of her lackeys as DNC chair. The superdelegates are already in her pocket.

      1. Actually, I predicted Perez would head the DNC. But I really wonder if people will be able to stomach her rhetoric another time around as she lams victimhood again.

        Can’t the Democratic party say “NO”?

    2. Hillary is a cure to democrat losses like Lindsey Graham is the healing force among conservatives. Hope she runs

    3. It’s been six months and still everyday an article on hiLOSERy’s November loss and what it means for America.

      Have we ever done this for any other loser? No.

      And it most especially makes no sense in this case.

      In four years time she’s going to be a total vegetable. Probably an incontinent one, bedridden, maybe behind bars. Not a pretty picture. Totally unelectable.

      You want to know what Hillary’s loss means for America in 2020?… Nothing.

    1. I’m with you!

      If there is one thing Trump does to make his Presidency a massive success, it would be to see to that this effin psychotic criminal bitch is FINALLY locked up. He gets that done, I will consider him the greatest POTUS of all time. Actually I should consider him that already because if he didn’t run, that bitch would be POTUS right now. Imagine that alternate reality.

  4. Absolutely correct, accurate, spot on analysis Apollo. If Hillary should read it she’d probably throw a French fit … if she has the energy for it.

      1. I noticed it, and think it’s bull. I’ll concede that the Russian Wiki Effect did little to effect the election’s outcome. But the Comey Effect coming when it did in the 11th hour ruined it for Hillary and put Trump over the top.

        1. Tell me, where do I go wrong in my analysis and methodology? Let’s see some real criticism. Don’t tell me that I’m wrong. SHOW ME!

    1. Stop slandering her. She’s very much alive. But the question is: how can she run with a walker?

  5. If I’m lucky,” Hillary said, “in a month from now, best-case scenario, I’m managing a Cinnabon in Omaha.”

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