THE SCIENCE BEHIND PRESIDENT TRUMP’S DENIAL THAT HARVEY AND IRMA ARE FOSSIL FUEL/CO2 RELATED DISASTERS

 

 
 
 

 

Why is it that President Trump is ignoring the dire warnings coming from climate scientists, green politicians and save the Earth activists and journalists the world over linking devastating hurricanes Harvey and Irma to rising CO2 inducing fossil fuel consumption which hit an all time high in 2016? Is it because his economy boosting, pro-middle class, capitalist agenda to turn America into a fossil fuel hyperpower is recklessly making him deaf, dumb and blind to the evidence of science that CO2 levels now at 410 ppm is disruptingly and dangerously high? Is he simply stuck on the stupid idea that catastrophic anthropogenic climate change and global warming is a fake science hoax devised by the enemies of industrial capitalism? Those progressives who want to move the world to a centralized socialist economic and energy model of redistributing wealth from rich to poor countries? And to replace fossil fuels with green, clean, safer but more costly, less efficient and reliable renewables (see) ? Is that it?

Behold the Great Beast of the 6th Extinction!/sarc

Indeed, is Trump just simply an irresponsible, reckless, menacing anti-science freak let loose on the world stage contributing and leading the way to humanity's doom and extinction as some like mastermind cosmologist Stephen Hawking hysterically warn? I don't believe so for a second. I don't believe that in Trump's refusing to believe in the linkage between Harvey and Irma and human activity in the massive, growing, wealth creating use of fossil fuels (especially in poor developing third world states) he is ignoring the facts of climate science. I am certain, and the facts as you will see prove me right, that Trump sees the science, the real science: the raw empirical data gathered by meteorologists and weather historians on hurricane and cyclone activity going back over a century; and that he has solid, irrefutable proof that those who accuse him of being a dangerous, science denying cretin and ignoramus, and find or theorize a nexus between extreme weather events and anthropogenic (man-made) CO2 are either liars or fools.

matthew-hype-cartoon

What are the facts the President sees that makes him so confident that wealthy climate activists like Al Gore and Leonardo Di Caprio were innocent of influencing Harvey, Irma and other powerful storms with their polluting, fuel burning flights across the world? These are the facts straight and simple taken from scientists and weather historians:

 
Though a guilty Al Gore may think that he's partly responsible for Harvey and Irma, he is wrong.
 

Beginning in 1910 on a timescale of 107 years divided into two periods of 53 years (1910 to 1963 and 1964 to 2017) there was a significant increase (see chart above) in anthropogenic (man caused) CO2 emissions of 119* parts per million (ppm); and, at the same time, there was a dramatic decrease in devastating hurricane activity hitting the US (see chart below). Indeed, while 1910-1963 saw 40 ppm of man caused CO2 added to the Earth's minutely warming atmosphere there was a total of 12 Category 4-5 hurricanes making landfall on the US . And while 1964-2017 saw an increase 79 ppm of man caused CO2 there was a total of only 6 Category 4-5 hurricanes hitting this country. In other words, there was nearly a doubling or 100% increase of CO2 emissions in the second period over the first while Category 4-5 hurricane activity was cut by half or 100%. That is a huge, dramatic drop and shouldn't have happened according climate change or anthropogenic global warming science. 

*Scientists tell us that currently man is increasing the level of atmospheric CO2 by 2 ppm per year. But in the earlier days of the 20th century when so little of the world was industrialized our CO2 output could not have been more than 1/2 ppm per year.

 
It's all about system change to socialism, not climate change  (see and see).
 

Now as there are three other categories of hurricanes (1, 2 and 3) the drop that President Trump is seeing in the Cat 4s and 5s isn't limited to them. For during that same period of 107 years there was a total of 47 Category 3 hurricanes that hit the US: 27 during the first period and 20 during the second totaling a 25% reduction.  

Now when these 47 Cat 3 hurricanes are added to the total number of destructive storms it gives us 39 Cat 3, 4 and 5 hurricanes during the first 53 years when there was less atmospheric CO2 verses 26 of these hurricanes during the last 53 years when there was more CO2. That amounts to an overall 33% drop in the three worst types of hurricanes - pretty substantial.

But the pattern that the President sees for the Cat 3,4 and 5 hurricanes he also sees for the least damaging: Cat 1 and 2. Now starting with Cat 2, during the 107 year period there was a total of 43 of these storms; that breaks down to 28 during 1910 - 1963, and 15 during the last period. That's a huge drop of 57%.

And lastly, for the Cat 1 hurricanes - the most common, numerous and least destructive of all - the total number of these for the entire 107 years was 62. This breaks down to 37 during the first period, and 25 for the last period, showing a 33% drop. Not too shabby.

Now, of course, what is true for each of the five categories of hurricanes taken separately is true of them taken together in combination. For the total number of hurricanes (categories 1-5) for the entire 107 year period is 169; that breaks down to a 104 for the first 53 years and 65 for the second. In other words, in the period that we're in (where atmospheric CO2 is more abundant) there's been a 63% decline in overall hurricane activity over the previous period - a huge drop.

The above are the facts as are known to Donald Trump and his science advisers. The fact that despite growing fossil fuel powered industrialization over that last 107 years there has been a steady decline in hurricanes of all categories hitting the U.S.. Indeed, Trump sees that this decline is most significant in the two most destructive categories of hurricanes (4-5) which run contrary to predictions that these would exponentially increase over time. One needs to recall the failed predictions in the wake of Hurricane Katrina of a decade of horrific catastrophes pounding the U.S. and Florida when there was a record 11 year drought instead. Indeed, so far 17 years into the 21st century we have had uncharacteristically mild hurricane conditions.

So on the basis of historical and scientific evidence (and catastrophically failed predictions) President Trump does well to ignore the desperate, hysterical cries and name calling of apocalyptic, end of the world messianic lunatics to reverse course and build on the ignorant, growth killing, climate change agenda of his ignorant and misguided predecessor. Wisely Trump will continue to dismantle that agenda that needlessly cost us billions in jobs and growth as he rightly denies any trace of human footprints in Harvey and Irma, and rebuilds America's economy, infrastructure and energy sector.

National Hurricane Center / Tropical Prediction Center
 

Chronological List of All Hurricanes which Affected the Continental United States: 1851-2004.

YEARMONTHSTATES AFFECTED AND CATEGORY BY STATESHIGHEST SAFFIR-SIMPSON U.S. CATEGORYCENTRAL PRESSURE (MB)MAX. WINDS (KT)NAME
1851JunTX, C11977 mb80-----
1851AugFL, NW3; GA, 13960100“Great Middle Florida”
1852AugFL, SW1197780-----
1852AugAL, 3; MS, 3; LA, 2; FL, NW13961100“Great Mobile”
1852SepFL, SW1198570-----
1852OctFL, NW2; GA, 1296990“Middle Florida”
1853Oct *GA, 1196570-----
1854JunTX, S1198570-----
1854SepGA, 3; SC, 2; FL, NE13950100“Great Carolina”
1854SepTX, C2296990“Matagorda”
1855SepLA, 3; MS, 33950110“Middle Gulf Shore”
1856AugLA, 44934130“Last Island”
1856AugFL, NW2; AL, 1; GA, 1296990“Southeastern States”
1857Sep &NC, 1196180-----
1858SepNY, 1; CT, 1; RI, 1; MA, 1197680“New England”
1859SepAL, 1; FL, NW1198570-----
1860AugLA, 3; MS, 3; AL, 23950110-----
1860SepLA, 2; MS, 2; AL, 1296990-----
1860OctLA, 2296990-----
1861Aug *FL, SW1197070“Key West”
1861SepNC, 1198570“Equinoctial”
1861NovNC, 1198570“Expedition”
1865SepLA, 2; TX, N1296990“Sabine River-Lake Calcasieu”
1865OctFL, SW2; FL, SE1296990-----
1866JulTX, C2296990-----
1867JunSC, 1198570-----
1867OctLA, 2; TX, S1, N1; FL, NW1296990“Galveston”
1869AugTX, C2296990“Lower Texas Coast”
1869SepLA, 1198570-----
1869SepRI, 3; MA, 3; NY, 1; CT, 13963100“Eastern New England”
1869Oct &ME, 2; MA, 1296590“Saxby’s Gale”
1870JulAL, 1198570“Mobile”
1870Oct *FL, SW1, SE1197070“Twin Key West (I)”
1870OctFL, SW1197780“Twin Key West (II)”
1871AugFL, SE3, NE1, NW13955100-----
1871AugFL, SE2, NE1296590-----
1871SepFL, NW1198570-----
1873SepFL, NW1198570-----
1873OctFL, SW3, SE2, NE13959100-----
1874SepFL, NW1; SC, 1; NC, 1198570-----
1875SepTX, C3, S23960100-----
1876SepNC, 1; VA, 1198080-----
1876OctFL, SW2, SE1297390-----
1877SepLA, 1; FL, NW1198570-----
1877OctFL, NW3; GA, 13960100-----
1878SepFL, SW2, NE1; SC, 1; GA, 1297090-----
1878OctNC, 2; VA, 1; MD, 1; DE, 1; NJ, 1; PA, 1296390-----
1879AugNC, 3; VA, 23971100-----
1879AugTX, N2; LA, 2296490-----
1879SepLA, 33950110-----
1880Aug #TX, S33931110-----
1880AugFL, SE2, NE1, NW1297290-----
1880SepNC, 1198770-----
1880OctFL, NW1198570-----
1881AugGA, 2; SC, 1297090-----
1881SepNC, 2297590-----
1882SepFL, NW3; AL, 13949100-----
1882SepLA, 2; TX, N1296990-----
1882OctFL, NW1198570-----
1883SepNC, 2; SC, 1296590-----
1885AugSC, 3; NC, 2; GA, 1; FL, NE13953100-----
1886JunTX, N2; LA, 2297385-----
1886JunFL, NW2; GA, 1297385-----
1886JunFL, NW2297385-----
1886JulFL, NW1198570-----
1886AugTX, C44925135“Indianola”
1886Sep #TX, S1, C1197380-----
1886OctLA, 3; TX, N23955105-----
1887JulFL, NW1198175-----
1887Aug *NC, 1194665-----
1887SepTX, S2297385-----
1887OctLA, 1198175-----
1888JunTX, C1198570-----
1888AugFL, SE3, SW1; LA23945110-----
1888Sep &MA, TSTS98555-----
1888OctFL, NW2, NE1297095-----
1889SepLA, 1198570-----
1891JulTX, C1, N1197780-----
1891AugFL, SE1198570-----
1893AugNY, 1; VA, 1198675“Midnight Storm”
1893AugGA, 3; SC, 3; NC, 1; FL, NE13954100“Sea Islands”
1893SepLA, 2297385-----
1893OctLA, 4; MS, 2; AL, 24948115“Chenier Caminanda”
1893OctSC, 3; NC, 2; VA, 13955105-----
1894SepFL, SW2, NE1; SC, 1; VA, 1297590-----
1894OctFL, NW3; GA, 1; NY, 1; RI, 13955105-----
1895Aug #TX, S1197365-----
1896JulFL, NW2297385-----
1896SepRI, 1; MA, 1198570-----
1896SepFL, NW3, NE3; GA, 2; SC, 1; NC, 1; VA, 13960110-----
1897SepLA, 1; TX, N1198175-----
1898AugFL, NW1198570-----
1898AugGA, 1; SC, 1198075-----
1898OctGA, 4; FL, NE24938115-----
1899AugFL, NW2297985-----
1899AugNC, 33945105-----
1899OctNC, 2; SC, 2295595-----
1900SepTX, N44936125“Galveston”
1901JulNC, 1198370-----
1901AugLA, 1; MS, 1; AL, 1197380-----
1903SepFL, SE1, NW1197680-----
1903SepNJ, 1; DE, 1199070-----
1904SepSC, 1198570-----
1904OctFL, SE1198570-----
1906JunFL, SW1, SE1197975-----
1906SepSC, 1; NC, 1197780-----
1906SepMS, 2; AL, 2; FL, NW2; LA, 1295895-----
1906OctFL, SW3, SE33953105-----
1908May &NC, TSTS98955-----
1908JulNC, 1198570-----
1909JunTX, S2297285-----
1909JulTX, N33959100“Velasco”
1909Aug #TX, S1195565-----
1909SepLA, 3; MS, 23952105“Grand Isle”
1909OctFL, SW3, SE33957100-----
1910SepTX, S2296595-----
1910OctFL, SW2295595-----
1911AugFL, NW1; AL,1198570-----
1911AugSC, 2; GA, 1297285-----
1912SepAL, 1; FL, NW1198865-----
1912OctTX, S2297385-----
1913JunTX, S1198865-----
1913SepNC, 1197675-----
1913OctSC, 1198965-----
1915AugTX, N44945----“Galveston”
1915SepFL, NW11988---------
1915SepLA, 44931----“New Orleans”
1916JulMS, 3; AL, 33948---------
1916JulMA, 11--------------
1916JulSC, 11980---------
1916AugTX, S33948---------
1916OctAL, 2; FL, NW22972---------
1916NovFL, SW11--------------
1917SepFL, NW33958---------
1918AugLA, 33955---------
1919SepFL, SW4; TX, S44927---------
1920SepLA, 22975---------
1920SepNC, 11--------------
1921JunTX, C22979---------
1921OctFL, SW3, NE23952----“Tampa Bay”
1923OctLA, 11985---------
1924SepFL, NW11985---------
1924OctFL, SW11980---------
1925No-DeFL, SW11--------------
1926JulFL, NE22967---------
1926AugLA, 33955---------
1926SepFL, SE4, SW3, NW3; AL, 34935----“Great Miami”
1928AugFL, SE22--------------
1928SepFL, SE4, NE2; GA, 1; SC, 14929----“Lake Okeechobee”
1929JunTX, C11982---------
1929SepFL, SE3, NW23948---------
1932AugTX, N44941----“Freeport”
1932SepAL, 11979---------
1933AugTX, S2; FL, SE12975---------
1933AugNC, 2; VA, 22971---------
1933SepTX, S33949---------
1933SepFL, SE33948---------
1933SepNC, 33957---------
1934JunLA, 33962---------
1934JulTX, S22975---------
1935SepFL, SW5, NW25892----“Labor Day”
1935NovFL, SE22973---------
1936JunTX, S11987---------
1936JulFL, NW33964---------
1936SepNC, 22--------------
1938AugLA, 11985---------
1938SepNY, 3; CT, 3; RI, 3; MA, 33946----“New England”
1939AugFL, SE1, NW11985---------
1940AugTX, N2; LA, 22972---------
1940AugGA, 2; SC, 22970---------
1941SepTX, N33958---------
1941OctFL, SE2, SW2, NW22975---------
1942AugTX, N11992---------
1942AugTX, C33950---------
1943JulTX, N22969---------
1944AugNC, 11990---------
1944SepNC, 3; VA, 3; NY, 3; CT, 3; RI, 3; MA, 23947---------
1944OctFL, SW3, NE23962---------
1945JunFL, NW11985---------
1945AugTX, C22967---------
1945SepFL, SE33951---------
1946OctFL, SW11980---------
1947AugTX, N11992---------
1947SepFL, SE4, SW2; MS, 3; LA, 34940---------
1947OctGA, 2; SC, 2; FL, SE12974---------
1948SepLA, 11987---------
1948SepFL, SW3, SE23963---------
1948OctFL, SE22975---------
1949Aug *NC, 11980---------
1949AugFL, SE33954---------
1949OctTX, N22972---------
1950AugAL, 11980----Baker
1950SepFL, NW33958----Easy
1950OctFL, SE33955----King
1952AugSC, 11985----Able
1953AugNC, 11987----Barbara
1953SepME, 11---------Carol
1953SepFL, NW11985----Florence
1954AugNY, 3; CT, 3; RI, 3; NC, 23960----Carol
1954SepMA, 3; ME, 13954----Edna
1954OctSC, 4; NC, 4; MD, 24938----Hazel
1955AugNC, 3; VA, 13962----Connie
1955AugNC, 11987----Diane
1955SepNC, 33960----Ione
1956SepLA, 2; FL, NW12975----Flossy
1957JunTX, N4; LA, 44945----Audrey
1959JulSC, 11993----Cindy
1959JulTX, N11984----Debra
1959SepSC, 33950----Gracie
1960SepFL, SW4; NC, 3; NY, 3; FL, NE2, CT, 2;4930----Donna
1960SepMS, 11981----Ethel
1961SepTX, C44931----Carla
1963SepTX, N11996----Cindy
1964AugFL, SE22968----Cleo
1964SepFL, NE22966----Dora
1964OctLA, 33950----Hilda
1964OctFL, SW2, SE22974----Isbell
1965SepFL, SE3; LA, 33948----Betsy
1966JunFL, NW22982----Alma
1966OctFL, SW11983----Inez
1967SepTX, S33950----Beulah
1968OctFL, NW2, NE12977----Gladys
1969AugLA, 5; MS, 55909----Camille
1969SepME, 11980----Gerda
1970AugTX, S33945----Celia
1971SepLA, 22978----Edith
1971SepTX, C11979----Fern
1971SepNC, 11995----Ginger
1972JunFL, NW1; NY, 1; CT, 11980----Agnes
1974SepLA, 33952----Carmen
1975SepFL, NW33955----Eloise
1976AugNY, 11980----Belle
1977SepLA, 11995----Babe
1979JulLA, 11986----Bob
1979SepFL, SE2, NE2; GA, 2; SC, 22970----David
1979SepAL, 3; MS, 33946----Frederic
1980AugTX, S33945100Allen
1983AugTX, N33962100Alicia
1984Sep *NC, 33949100Diana
1985JulSC, 11100265Bob
1985AugLA, 1198780Danny
1985SepAL, 3; MS, 3; FL, NW33959100Elena
1985SepNC, 3; NY,3; CT,2; NH,2; ME,1394290Gloria
1985OctLA, 1197175Juan
1985NovFL, NW2296785Kate
1986JunTX, N1199075Bonnie
1986AugNC, 1199065Charley
1987OctFL, SW1199365Floyd
1988SepLA, 1198470Florence
1989AugTX, N1198670Chantal
1989SepSC, 44934120Hugo
1989OctTX, N1198375Jerry
1991AugRI, 2; MA, 2; NY, 2; CT, 2296290Bob
1992AugFL, SE5, SW4; LA, 35922145Andrew
1993Aug *NC, 33960100Emily
1995AugFL, NW2, SE1297385Erin
1995OctFL, NW33942100Opal
1996JulNC, 2297490Bertha
1996SepNC, 33954100Fran
1997JulLA, 1; AL, 1198470Danny
1998AugNC, 2296495Bonnie
1998SepFL, NW1198770Earl
1998SepFL, SW2; MS, 2296490Georges
1999AugTX, S33951100Bret
1999SepNC, 2295690Floyd
1999OctFL, SW1198770Irene
2002OctLA, 1196380Lili
2003JulTX, C1197980Claudette
2003SepNC, 2; VA, 1295790Isabel
2004Aug *NC, 1197270Alex
2004AugFL, SW4, SE1, NE1; SC,1; NC,14941130Charley
2004AugSC, 1198565Gaston
2004SepFL, SE2, SW1296090Frances
2004SepAL, 3; FL, NW33946105Ivan
2004SepFL, SE3, SW1, NW13950105Jeanne
  2005  Aug   Cent FL, LA,      3                                    125          Katrina 2005  Oct         FL                 3                                    110          Wilma 2016  Oct         FL                 1                                    75           Matthew 2017  Aug        TX                 4                                   156          Harvey  2017 Sept         FL                4                                                   Irma

                            

POSTSCRIPT I

Australia

Graph showing the number of cyclones per year since 1970

It appears that the continental US is not the only great land mass prone to cyclones and hurricanes that have shown a decline in this activity over the decades. This has also happened to Australia over the last 46 years. Indeed. the bar chart above shows that the total number of cyclones decreased to the mid-1980s and remained nearly stable since - which defies AGW predictions of increasing cyclonic activity.
 
However, the first decade of the 21st century showed a precipitous decline in severe cyclones over the previous decade dropping from 65 to 37 or 57%. And the first 7 years of our decade vs. the first 7 years of the last is running behind by 4 severe cyclones 30-26 - with 2016 being the first year in the last 47 showing no severe cyclones at all (see).
 
POSTSCRIPT II
 
 
What is true for the decline of cyclonic activity for the US and Australia in particular is also true generally for the world at large. For researchers have found no worldwide increase in tropical cyclone frequency over the past several decades despite huge increases in greenhouse gas emissions (see and see) .

 

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26 thoughts on “THE SCIENCE BEHIND PRESIDENT TRUMP’S DENIAL THAT HARVEY AND IRMA ARE FOSSIL FUEL/CO2 RELATED DISASTERS

    1. It’s absolutely bull. And no amount of human industrial restriction would prevent an Irma or Harvey. It has nothing to do with it.

  1. We have had 14 years without a major hurricane to hit the United States. Hurricane Sandy was not a major Hurricane. It was costly but not a major storm.

    Using the logic of cause and effect, 14 years of global warming have kePT the hurricanes away. It is obvious that we need much more global warming to keep future hurricanes away.

  2. I heard a moronic Trump hating leftist say that Irma and Harvey are Trump’s fault; and that if Obama were still president they wouldn’t have happened; she also said that global warming causes earthquakes. My head is exploding

    1. And I guess Hurricane Sandy was Obama’s fault..killed over 200 people, 75 billion in damage..ALL karma for New York/New Jersey voting for Obama right Jen?? Seriously these celebs prove everyday what absolute MORONS they are..read yesterday she also said she didn’t want any Trump supporters watching her upcoming movie Mother..not a problem, looks like utter sh*t anyway

    2. But Jen, Palm Beach County, Broward County, Miami-Dade County (getting hit the hardest)were all won by Hillary.

      Pretty sure Mother Nature doesn’t play politics. We’re all pawns in her game.

  3. Talk to paleoclimatologists. They’ll tell you that in the past the earth had much higher temps and CO2 levels. Life did just fine

        1. I love how they cannot predict how immediate weather events will behave accurately ( Irma) yet believe they have any chance of predicting the far more complicated long-term climate.

          1. What happened to the ice age that they were predicting back in the 70’s? As an avid skier I want to know how they got that wrong.

          2. I love how climate change has been around for about 4.3 billion years, but that liberals just discovered it in the 1990s and think it’s something evil and contrary to nature that’s dooming the planet.

  4. My lawn is lusher and greener than I remember seeing. And I’ve lived in this same house for 35 years. And the same goes for my neighbors. They all say the same thing. I thought by now it should be shriveled up, bone dry dead.

    FUCK ALL CLIMATE CHANGE IDIOTS!

    1. It’s estimated that the world uses 68 per cent less land to produce the same quantity of crops as 50 years ago. We’ve done this without a massive increase in fertilizer and chemicals. How did we do this? By creating an atmosphere richer in CO2 (plant food).

      btw, posting here for the first time. Great site.

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