Economists Credit Trump as Tailwind for U.S. Growth, Hiring and Stocks - WSJ


When 63 million American voters made Donald Trump the 45th U.S. President they knew exactly who he was and what they'd be getting. They knew he was a crude, rude, egocentric, combative dude, entertainingly loose with facts, given to hyperbole and bluster who was a bit sexist, hated illegal aliens and wasn't too fond of Moslems. They knew Trump was far from a perfect human being and would, if elected, fall far short of Abe Lincoln our most saint like President. And the man they elected with his good and bad traits hasn't changed one bit. 12 months in office and he's the same defiant, disruptive, tweeting, antagonizing, offensive, counter punching American first patriot that they saw during the campaign, and that family members and friends have known going back decades. 

But those millions of Americans didn't elect Trump to undergo a personality change, and mentally and morally become a different man once in office. They didn't put him there to live up to some ideal of what a US President should be. Indeed, Trump is and will remain to his very last day in office the most unconventional, unpredictable, unpresidential president in US history sparking applause, controversy and outrage from what he says, does and doesn't do. 
But more than any other issue these 63 million mostly working class Americans elected Donald Trump to change (not himself) but the economic direction of the country; they voted for him to improve their fortunes and standard of living which had been in decline for decades - but greatly worsened during the Bush and (especially) Obama years. And to the distress and consternation of his political enemies that's what our president is happily achieving.
Personal warts and all Trump is radically altering and reorienting the US economy away from the demoralizing, anti-business, growth inhibiting, redistributionist model of Barack Obama to a business friendly, optimistic, growth inducing model focused (unlike Obama) on fiscal policy, regulatory relief and changing tax laws. That is a seismic shift freeing much of the economy from stifling executive Obama era controls that in part caused the low growth, bad jobs, flat to failing economy that cost Democrats the Congress, 13 governorships, 1000 state legislature seats, the Presidency, a Supreme Court pick and much of the middle class. 
Donald Trump rejecting Obamanomics and its core idea of stimulating the economy into robust growth through heavy government spending, taxation and massive bureaucratic regulations is now on the verge of achieving the very booming prosperity Obama promised but couldn't deliver. Indeed, before the 2020 election (as happened before the 1964 and 1984 elections when a surging economy sparked by individual and corporate tax cuts won landslide elections for presidents Johnson and Reagan) we will witness, I believe, the greatest period of innovation, enterprise and productivity since the Reagan 80s and Clinton 90s (which were actually an extension of the Reagan years).
What we have seen over the last few weeks with two million workers (from 163 companies) receiving bonuses and wage hikes, and utilities cutting energy prices to save consumers money (who'll soon see fatter pay checks) is prelude. Watch businesses across the spectrum cut prices for goods and services as they hotly compete with each other for our business. And as we learn from the Wall Street Journal survey cited above most economists (90%) agree that better times are definitely ahead for America with only (because of the building momentum) the barest possibility of a recession. Like the Federal Reserve some economists expect modest growth; others agreeing with the Trump Administration expect strong, hugely beneficial growth lifting all boats great and small.

Polling Data

RCP Average10/22 - 1/9--45.446.6-1.2
Economist/YouGov1/8 - 1/91327 RV4943+6
Reuters/Ipsos1/5 - 1/91616 A4745+2
Quinnipiac12/13 - 12/181230 RV4451-7
CNN12/14 - 12/17898 RV4449-5
CNBC12/10 - 12/13800 A4743+4
Harvard-Harris12/8 - 12/111989 RV5050Tie
CBS News12/3 - 12/51120 A4252-10
NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl10/23 - 10/26900 A4237+5
FOX News10/22 - 10/241005 RV4449-5

All President Trump Job Approval - Economy Polling Data

And what economists are seeing in their crystal balls much of the public is feeling in their gut as reflected in soaring consumer confidence and spending, and the most recent polls. Indeed, the exhaustive Quinnipiac poll (cited above) on the state of the economy is a positive 63% from 29% a year earlier when Obama left office. And though this poll (by 45% to 43%) gives more credit to Obama than to Trump (it samples more Democrats to Republicans by 11%) Economist/You Gov (see above) rated Trump's handling of the economy at 49% (its highest to date) with Reuters at 47% (unchanged from last month). By the mid-term elections expect Trump to leave Obama in the dust; and his RCP average to be in the mid to upper 50s - pulling his job approval numbers up into the mid 40s.
The stock market, new home construction, manufacturing, energy production, small business start-ups, etc. we are now very much in a rocketing Trump strong economy with Maganomics triumphing in every sector. But politics is a zero sum game; and Trump's gains mean loss for his frightened, malicious, hate driven enemies who work 24/7 to minimize or deny his achievements and pray for a market crash and recession to bring him down.  In the Trump era patriotism for the lynch mob Left is wanting bad things to happen to America; that is how deranged and insane they are.
RCP average just shy of 50%

Polling Data

RCP Average1/12 - 1/18--49.844.7+5.1
CNN1/14 - 1/18RV5142+9
Economist/YouGov1/14 - 1/161311 RV5141+10
Harvard-Harris1/13 - 1/161192 RV5446+8
CBS News1/13 - 1/161225 A4649-3
Quinnipiac1/12 - 1/161212 RV4846+2
Reuters/Ipsos1/12 - 1/161638 A4944+5

All President Trump Job Approval - Economy Polling Data

Looks like I was wrong. Above I predicted that by the mid terms President Trump's approval rating on handling the economy would be in the mid to upper 50s. But in light of  three recent polls (CNN: 51%, Economist: 51%, and Harris: 54%) I'm revising my prediction to the low 60s (see) pulling up Trump's RCP job approval average to a solid 50% - it's now slightly under 40% with CNN at 43% (see) edging out Rasmussen by a point.  
The Harvard-Harris poll is now at a whopping 59% having added 4 points in one week.
RCP Average1/12 - 1/23--50.943.6+7.3
FOX News1/21 - 1/231002 RV5141+10
Economist/YouGov1/21 - 1/231301 RV5241+11
Reuters/Ipsos1/19 - 1/232981 A4945+4
Harvard-Harris1/17 - 1/19980 RV5941+18
CNN1/14 - 1/18RV5142+9
CBS News1/13 - 1/161225 A4649-3
Quinnipiac1/12 - 1/161212 RV4846+2


    1. And the markets keep setting new all time highs. Leftist ideas on markets and economics are turning into roadkill right before our eyes.

  1. Remember when Obama said, “well those manufacturing jobs will just NOT come back, we can’t wave a wand and make it happen,”

    Obama failed because he believed that, Trump on the other hand believes we can be great again, he believes in the American people and American ingenuity, confidence is the number one aspect of winners, and it’s contagious, thank you President Trump.

      1. But but but….wasn’t it Obama who touted “Yes we can”.
        Oh wait…..that was about destroying the America the big nasty colonizer, sorry about the misinterpretation.

        1. We can NOT cut the budget to balance!
          We can NOT raise taxes to balance the budget!

          We CAN grow the economy and hold the spending and walk our way out of the deficit. It’s probably the only way to get there!

          MAGA!… Deplorable in Colorado!

          1. Home ownership was at historic lows under Obama. All of this even with borrowing at historically low interest rates. Pathetic.

          2. Trump has been above 3% all last year despite the FED continuously raising rates to try and kill the growth and despite the hurricanes in Florida, Texas and Puerto Rico. Even despite the $20 Trillion debt Obama left and the inflation that comes as a result, Trump has ignited a rocket fueled growth in the US economy without the tax cuts. Niw growth will be on steroids and propell him to a second term

    1. Great leadership by POTUS, spot on economic strategies, elimination of stupid gov regulations, overhauling tax system as Apollo says = Trump Strong Economy

  2. So sad that democrats can’t get over the fact that Trump won, democrats did everything the could to stop him and he still won! Trump won against all the money that was thrown into the democrat cat (or is that kitty). He won against all the lies and the fraud. Democrats where so sure they were going to win and they lost BIG TIME!! Now they tried to stop his economic agenda and LOST AGAIN.


    1. Democrats are the party of hopelessness. Just getting them out of the white house boosts the economy a full 1 to 1.5%.

  3. Apollo’s wrong. Trump’s approval rating on the economy isn’t 49%, it’s 96% How did I arrive at that? That’s the employment number in America. Can’t get much better than that.

  4. I note another post that black unemployment is at its lowest in 45 years.

    I suspect this will the leading news story in every press outlet.

    Y’know, in an alternate universe.

    1. Depends on whose expectations we are talking about. I KNEW that the economy would take off as quickly as Obama got out of its way.

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